Two scenarios:
The Republican Party breaks into factionalized pieces, spends its time in the wilderness while the Democrats rule the agenda, and then comes back as a rational group with thoughts for discussion to challenge for dominance. The waxing and waning of the two party system continues.
OR
The Blue Dog Democrats' membership grows by attracting centrist and rational Republicans and shifts to the right, while the main Democratic agenda becomes more progrssive sliding to the left and the main Republican agenda follows its current dominance by its far-right wing. Ultimately, the U.S. shifts to a three party system.
Which of these scenarios is more likely to occur?
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